Automatic Forecasting

Automatic forecasting tools search for the best parameters and select the best possible model for a series of time series. These tools are useful for large collections of univariate time series.

ModelPoint ForecastProbabilistic ForecastInsample fitted valuesProbabilistic fitted values
AutoARIMA
AutoETS
AutoCES
AutoTheta

ARIMA Family

These models exploit the existing autocorrelations in the time series.

ModelPoint ForecastProbabilistic ForecastInsample fitted valuesProbabilistic fitted values
ARIMA
AutoRegressive

Theta Family

Fit two theta lines to a deseasonalized time series, using different techniques to obtain and combine the two theta lines to produce the final forecasts.

ModelPoint ForecastProbabilistic ForecastInsample fitted valuesProbabilistic fitted values
Theta
OptimizedTheta
DynamicTheta
DynamicOptimizedTheta

Multiple Seasonalities

Suited for signals with more than one clear seasonality. Useful for low-frequency data like electricity and logs.

ModelPoint ForecastProbabilistic ForecastInsample fitted valuesProbabilistic fitted values
MSTL

GARCH and ARCH Models

Suited for modeling time series that exhibit non-constant volatility over time. The ARCH model is a particular case of GARCH.

ModelPoint ForecastProbabilistic ForecastInsample fitted valuesProbabilistic fitted values
GARCH
ARCH

Baseline Models

Classical models for establishing baseline.

ModelPoint ForecastProbabilistic ForecastInsample fitted valuesProbabilistic fitted values
HistoricAverage
Naive
RandomWalkWithDrift
SeasonalNaive
WindowAverage
SeasonalWindowAverage

Exponential Smoothing

Uses a weighted average of all past observations where the weights decrease exponentially into the past. Suitable for data with clear trend and/or seasonality. Use the SimpleExponential family for data with no clear trend or seasonality.

ModelPoint ForecastProbabilistic ForecastInsample fitted valuesProbabilistic fitted values
SimpleExponentialSmoothing
SimpleExponentialSmoothingOptimized
SeasonalExponentialSmoothing
SeasonalExponentialSmoothingOptimized
Holt
HoltWinters

Sparse or Intermittent

Suited for series with very few non-zero observations

ModelPoint ForecastProbabilistic ForecastInsample fitted valuesProbabilistic fitted values
ADIDA
CrostonClassic
CrostonOptimized
CrostonSBA
IMAPA
TSB