Quick start (distributed)

The DistributedMLForecast class is a high level abstraction that encapsulates all the steps in the pipeline (preprocessing, fitting the model and computing predictions) and applies them in a distributed way.

The different things that you need to use DistributedMLForecast (as opposed to MLForecast) are:

You need to set up a cluster. We currently support dask, ray and spark.
Your data needs to be a distributed collection (dask, ray or spark dataframe).
You need to use a model that implements distributed training in your framework of choice, e.g. SynapseML for LightGBM in spark.

import platform
import sys
import tempfile

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import git
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import s3fs
from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator
from utilsforecast.feature_engineering import fourier

from mlforecast.distributed import DistributedMLForecast
from mlforecast.lag_transforms import ExpandingMean, ExponentiallyWeightedMean, RollingMean
from mlforecast.target_transforms import Differences
from mlforecast.utils import generate_daily_series, generate_prices_for_series

Dask

import dask.dataframe as dd
from dask.distributed import Client

Client setup

client = Client(n_workers=2, threads_per_worker=1)

Here we define a client that connects to a dask.distributed.LocalCluster, however it could be any other kind of cluster.

Data setup

For dask, the data must be a dask.dataframe.DataFrame. You need to make sure that each time serie is only in one partition and it is recommended that you have as many partitions as you have workers. If you have more partitions than workers make sure to set num_threads=1 to avoid having nested parallelism.

The required input format is the same as for MLForecast, except that it’s a dask.dataframe.DataFrame instead of a pandas.Dataframe.

series = generate_daily_series(100, n_static_features=2, equal_ends=True, static_as_categorical=False, min_length=500, max_length=1_000)
train, future = fourier(series, freq='d', season_length=7, k=2, h=7)
npartitions = 10
partitioned_series = dd.from_pandas(train.set_index('unique_id'), npartitions=npartitions)  # make sure we split by the id_col
partitioned_series = partitioned_series.map_partitions(lambda df: df.reset_index())
partitioned_series['unique_id'] = partitioned_series['unique_id'].astype(str)  # can't handle categoricals atm
partitioned_series

	unique_id	ds	y	static_0	static_1	sin1_7	sin2_7	cos1_7	cos2_7
npartitions=10
id_00	object	datetime64[ns]	float64	int64	int64	float32	float32	float32	float32
id_10	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
id_90	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
id_99	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…

Models

In order to perform distributed forecasting, we need to use a model that is able to train in a distributed way using dask. The current implementations are in DaskLGBMForecast and DaskXGBForecast which are just wrappers around the native implementations.

from mlforecast.distributed.models.dask.lgb import DaskLGBMForecast
from mlforecast.distributed.models.dask.xgb import DaskXGBForecast

models = [
    DaskXGBForecast(random_state=0),
    DaskLGBMForecast(random_state=0, verbosity=-1),
]

Training

Once we have our models we instantiate a DistributedMLForecast object defining our features. We can then call fit on this object passing our dask dataframe.

fcst = DistributedMLForecast(
    models=models,
    freq='D',
    target_transforms=[Differences([7])],
    lags=[7],
    lag_transforms={
        1: [ExpandingMean(), ExponentiallyWeightedMean(alpha=0.9)],
        7: [RollingMean(window_size=14)],
    },
    date_features=['dayofweek', 'month'],
    num_threads=1,
    engine=client,
)
fcst.fit(partitioned_series, static_features=['static_0', 'static_1'])

Once we have our fitted models we can compute the predictions for the next 7 timesteps.

Forecasting

preds = fcst.predict(7, X_df=future).compute()
preds.head()

	unique_id	ds	DaskXGBForecast	DaskLGBMForecast
0	id_00	2002-09-27 00:00:00	22.267619	21.835798
1	id_00	2002-09-28 00:00:00	85.230055	83.996424
2	id_00	2002-09-29 00:00:00	168.256154	163.076652
3	id_00	2002-09-30 00:00:00	246.712244	245.827467
4	id_00	2002-10-01 00:00:00	314.184225	315.257849

Saving and loading

Once you’ve trained your model you can use the DistributedMLForecast.save method to save the artifacts for inference. Keep in mind that if you’re on a remote cluster you should set a remote storage like S3 as the destination.

mlforecast uses fsspec to handle the different filesystems, so if you’re using s3 for example you also need to install s3fs. If you’re using pip you can just include the aws extra, e.g. pip install 'mlforecast[aws,dask]', which will install the required dependencies to perform distributed training with dask and saving to S3. If you’re using conda you’ll have to manually install them (conda install dask fsspec fugue s3fs).

# define unique name for CI
def build_unique_name(engine):
    pyver = f'{sys.version_info.major}_{sys.version_info.minor}'
    repo = git.Repo(search_parent_directories=True)
    sha = repo.head.object.hexsha
    return f'{sys.platform}-{pyver}-{engine}-{sha}'

save_dir = build_unique_name('dask')
save_path = f's3://nixtla-tmp/mlf/{save_dir}'
tmpdir = tempfile.TemporaryDirectory()
try:
    s3fs.S3FileSystem().ls('s3://nixtla-tmp/')
    fcst.save(save_path)
except Exception as e:
    print(e)
    save_path = f'{tmpdir.name}/{save_dir}'
    fcst.save(save_path)

Once you’ve saved your forecast object you can then load it back by specifying the path where it was saved along with an engine, which will be used to perform the distributed computations (in this case the dask client).

fcst2 = DistributedMLForecast.load(save_path, engine=client)

We can verify that this object produces the same results.

preds = fa.as_pandas(fcst.predict(7, X_df=future)).sort_values(['unique_id', 'ds']).reset_index(drop=True)
preds2 = fa.as_pandas(fcst2.predict(7, X_df=future)).sort_values(['unique_id', 'ds']).reset_index(drop=True)
pd.testing.assert_frame_equal(preds, preds2)

Converting to local

Another option to store your distributed forecast object is to first turn it into a local one and then save it. Keep in mind that in order to do that all the remote data that is stored from the series will have to be pulled into a single machine (the scheduler in dask, driver in spark, etc.), so you have to be sure that it’ll fit in memory, it should consume about 2x the size of your target column (you can reduce this further by using the keep_last_n argument in the fit method).

local_fcst = fcst.to_local()
local_preds = local_fcst.predict(7, X_df=future)
# we don't check the dtype because sometimes these are arrow dtypes
# or different precisions of float
pd.testing.assert_frame_equal(preds, local_preds, check_dtype=False)

Cross validation

cv_res = fcst.cross_validation(
    partitioned_series,
    n_windows=3,
    h=14,
    static_features=['static_0', 'static_1'],
)

cv_res.compute().head()

	unique_id	ds	DaskXGBForecast	DaskLGBMForecast	cutoff	y
61	id_04	2002-08-21 00:00:00	68.3418	68.944539	2002-08-15 00:00:00	69.699857
83	id_15	2002-08-29 00:00:00	199.315403	199.663555	2002-08-15 00:00:00	206.082864
103	id_17	2002-08-21 00:00:00	156.822598	158.018246	2002-08-15 00:00:00	152.227984
61	id_24	2002-08-21 00:00:00	136.598356	136.576865	2002-08-15 00:00:00	138.559945
36	id_33	2002-08-24 00:00:00	95.6072	96.249354	2002-08-15 00:00:00	102.068997

client.close()

Spark

Session setup

from pyspark.sql import SparkSession

spark = (
    SparkSession
    .builder
    .config("spark.jars.packages", "com.microsoft.azure:synapseml_2.12:0.10.2")
    .config("spark.jars.repositories", "https://mmlspark.azureedge.net/maven")
    .getOrCreate()
)

Data setup

For spark, the data must be a pyspark DataFrame. You need to make sure that each time serie is only in one partition (which you can do using repartitionByRange, for example) and it is recommended that you have as many partitions as you have workers. If you have more partitions than workers make sure to set num_threads=1 to avoid having nested parallelism.

The required input format is the same as for MLForecast, i.e. it should have at least an id column, a time column and a target column.

series = generate_daily_series(100, n_static_features=2, equal_ends=True, static_as_categorical=False, min_length=500, max_length=1_000)
series['unique_id'] = series['unique_id'].astype(str)  # can't handle categoricals atm
train, future = fourier(series, freq='d', season_length=7, k=2, h=7)
numPartitions = 4
spark_series = spark.createDataFrame(train).repartitionByRange(numPartitions, 'unique_id')

Models

In order to perform distributed forecasting, we need to use a model that is able to train in a distributed way using spark. The current implementations are in SparkLGBMForecast and SparkXGBForecast which are just wrappers around the native implementations.

from mlforecast.distributed.models.spark.lgb import SparkLGBMForecast
from mlforecast.distributed.models.spark.xgb import SparkXGBForecast

models = [
    SparkLGBMForecast(seed=0, verbosity=-1),
    SparkXGBForecast(random_state=0),
]

Training

fcst = DistributedMLForecast(
    models,
    freq='D',
    target_transforms=[Differences([7])],    
    lags=[1],
    lag_transforms={
        1: [ExpandingMean(), ExponentiallyWeightedMean(alpha=0.9)],
    },
    date_features=['dayofweek'],
)
fcst.fit(
    spark_series,
    static_features=['static_0', 'static_1'],
)

Forecasting

preds = fcst.predict(7, X_df=future).toPandas()

preds.head()

	unique_id	ds	SparkLGBMForecast	SparkXGBForecast
0	id_00	2002-09-27	15.053577	18.631477
1	id_00	2002-09-28	93.010037	93.796269
2	id_00	2002-09-29	160.120148	159.582315
3	id_00	2002-09-30	250.445885	250.861651
4	id_00	2002-10-01	323.335956	321.564089

Saving and loading

mlforecast uses fsspec to handle the different filesystems, so if you’re using s3 for example you also need to install s3fs. If you’re using pip you can just include the aws extra, e.g. pip install 'mlforecast[aws,spark]', which will install the required dependencies to perform distributed training with spark and saving to S3. If you’re using conda you’ll have to manually install them (conda install fsspec fugue pyspark s3fs).

save_dir = build_unique_name('spark')
save_path = f's3://nixtla-tmp/mlf/{save_dir}'
try:
    s3fs.S3FileSystem().ls('s3://nixtla-tmp/')
    fcst.save(save_path)
except Exception as e:
    print(e)
    save_path = f'{tmpdir.name}/{save_dir}'
    fcst.save(save_path)

fcst2 = DistributedMLForecast.load(save_path, engine=spark)

We can verify that this object produces the same results.

preds = fa.as_pandas(fcst.predict(7, X_df=future)).sort_values(['unique_id', 'ds']).reset_index(drop=True)
preds2 = fa.as_pandas(fcst2.predict(7, X_df=future)).sort_values(['unique_id', 'ds']).reset_index(drop=True)
pd.testing.assert_frame_equal(preds, preds2)

Converting to local

local_fcst = fcst.to_local()
local_preds = local_fcst.predict(7, X_df=future)
# we don't check the dtype because sometimes these are arrow dtypes
# or different precisions of float
pd.testing.assert_frame_equal(preds, local_preds, check_dtype=False)

Cross validation

cv_res = fcst.cross_validation(
    spark_series,
    n_windows=3,
    h=14,
    static_features=['static_0', 'static_1'],
).toPandas()

cv_res.head()

	unique_id	ds	SparkLGBMForecast	SparkXGBForecast	cutoff	y
0	id_03	2002-08-18	3.272922	3.348874	2002-08-15	3.060194
1	id_09	2002-08-20	402.718091	402.622501	2002-08-15	398.784459
2	id_25	2002-08-22	87.189811	86.891632	2002-08-15	82.731377
3	id_06	2002-08-21	20.416790	20.478502	2002-08-15	19.196394
4	id_22	2002-08-23	357.718513	360.502024	2002-08-15	394.770699

spark.stop()

Ray

Session setup

import ray
from ray.cluster_utils import Cluster

ray_cluster = Cluster(
    initialize_head=True,
    head_node_args={"num_cpus": 2}
)
ray.init(address=ray_cluster.address, ignore_reinit_error=True)
# add mock node to simulate a cluster
mock_node = ray_cluster.add_node(num_cpus=2)

Data setup

For ray, the data must be a ray DataFrame. It is recommended that you have as many partitions as you have workers. If you have more partitions than workers make sure to set num_threads=1 to avoid having nested parallelism.

The required input format is the same as for MLForecast, i.e. it should have at least an id column, a time column and a target column.

series = generate_daily_series(100, n_static_features=2, equal_ends=True, static_as_categorical=False, min_length=500, max_length=1_000)
series['unique_id'] = series['unique_id'].astype(str)  # can't handle categoricals atm
train, future = fourier(series, freq='d', season_length=7, k=2, h=7)
ray_series = ray.data.from_pandas(train)

Models

The ray integration allows to include lightgbm (RayLGBMRegressor), and xgboost (RayXGBRegressor).

from mlforecast.distributed.models.ray.lgb import RayLGBMForecast
from mlforecast.distributed.models.ray.xgb import RayXGBForecast

models = [
    RayLGBMForecast(random_state=0, verbosity=-1),
    RayXGBForecast(random_state=0),
]

Training

To control the number of partitions to use using Ray, we have to include num_partitions to DistributedMLForecast.

num_partitions = 4

fcst = DistributedMLForecast(
    models,
    freq='D',
    target_transforms=[Differences([7])],
    lags=[1],
    lag_transforms={
        1: [ExpandingMean(), ExponentiallyWeightedMean(alpha=0.9)],
    },
    date_features=['dayofweek'],
    num_partitions=num_partitions, # Use num_partitions to reduce overhead
)
fcst.fit(
    ray_series,
    static_features=['static_0', 'static_1'],
)

Forecasting

preds = fcst.predict(7, X_df=future).to_pandas()

preds.head()

	unique_id	ds	RayLGBMForecast	RayXGBForecast
0	id_00	2002-09-27	15.232455	10.38301
1	id_00	2002-09-28	92.288994	92.531502
2	id_00	2002-09-29	160.043472	160.722885
3	id_00	2002-09-30	250.03212	252.821899
4	id_00	2002-10-01	322.905182	324.387695

Saving and loading

mlforecast uses fsspec to handle the different filesystems, so if you’re using s3 for example you also need to install s3fs. If you’re using pip you can just include the aws extra, e.g. pip install 'mlforecast[aws,ray]', which will install the required dependencies to perform distributed training with ray and saving to S3. If you’re using conda you’ll have to manually install them (conda install fsspec fugue ray s3fs).

save_dir = build_unique_name('ray')
save_path = f's3://nixtla-tmp/mlf/{save_dir}'
try:
    s3fs.S3FileSystem().ls('s3://nixtla-tmp/')
    fcst.save(save_path)
except Exception as e:
    print(e)
    save_path = f'{tmpdir.name}/{save_dir}'
    fcst.save(save_path)

fcst2 = DistributedMLForecast.load(save_path, engine='ray')

We can verify that this object produces the same results.

preds = fa.as_pandas(fcst.predict(7, X_df=future)).sort_values(['unique_id', 'ds']).reset_index(drop=True)
preds2 = fa.as_pandas(fcst2.predict(7, X_df=future)).sort_values(['unique_id', 'ds']).reset_index(drop=True)
pd.testing.assert_frame_equal(preds, preds2)

Converting to local

local_fcst = fcst.to_local()
local_preds = local_fcst.predict(7, X_df=future)
# we don't check the dtype because sometimes these are arrow dtypes
# or different precisions of float
pd.testing.assert_frame_equal(preds, local_preds, check_dtype=False)

Cross validation

cv_res = fcst.cross_validation(
    ray_series,
    n_windows=3,
    h=14,
    static_features=['static_0', 'static_1'],
).to_pandas()

cv_res.head()

	unique_id	ds	RayLGBMForecast	RayXGBForecast	cutoff	y
0	id_05	2002-09-21	108.285187	108.619698	2002-09-12	108.726387
1	id_08	2002-09-16	26.287956	26.589603	2002-09-12	27.980670
2	id_08	2002-09-25	83.210945	84.194962	2002-09-12	86.344885
3	id_11	2002-09-22	416.994843	417.106506	2002-09-12	425.434661
4	id_16	2002-09-14	377.916382	375.421600	2002-09-12	400.361977

ray.shutdown()

Getting Started

How-to guides

Tutorials

API Reference

Quick start (distributed)

Dask

Client setup

Data setup

Models

Training

Forecasting

Saving and loading

Converting to local

Cross validation

Spark

Session setup

Data setup

Models

Training

Forecasting

Saving and loading

Converting to local

Cross validation

Ray

Session setup

Data setup

Models

Training

Forecasting

Saving and loading

Converting to local

Cross validation

Getting Started

How-to guides

Tutorials

API Reference

​Dask

​Client setup

​Data setup

​Models

​Training

​Forecasting

​Saving and loading

​Converting to local

​Cross validation

​Spark

​Session setup

​Data setup

​Models

​Training

​Forecasting

​Saving and loading

​Converting to local

​Cross validation

​Ray

​Session setup

​Data setup

​Models

​Training

​Forecasting

​Saving and loading

​Converting to local

​Cross validation

Dask

Client setup

Data setup

Models

Training

Forecasting

Saving and loading

Converting to local

Cross validation

Spark

Session setup

Data setup

Models

Training

Forecasting

Saving and loading

Converting to local

Cross validation

Ray

Session setup

Data setup

Models

Training

Forecasting

Saving and loading

Converting to local

Cross validation