👍 Use an Azure AI endpoint To use an Azure AI endpoint, set thebase_url
argument:nixtla_client = NixtlaClient(base_url="you azure ai endpoint", api_key="your api_key")
Country | Region | State | Purpose | ds | y | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1998-01-01 | 135.077690 |
1 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1998-04-01 | 109.987316 |
2 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1998-07-01 | 166.034687 |
3 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1998-10-01 | 127.160464 |
4 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1999-01-01 | 137.448533 |
5 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1999-04-01 | 199.912586 |
6 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1999-07-01 | 169.355090 |
7 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 1999-10-01 | 134.357937 |
8 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 2000-01-01 | 154.034398 |
9 | Australia | Adelaide | South Australia | Business | 2000-04-01 | 168.776364 |
aggregate
function from HierarchicalForecast
we can get
the full set of time series.
Note You can installhierarchicalforecast
withpip
:
unique_id | ds | y | |
---|---|---|---|
0 | Australia | 1998-01-01 | 23182.197269 |
1 | Australia | 1998-04-01 | 20323.380067 |
2 | Australia | 1998-07-01 | 19826.640511 |
3 | Australia | 1998-10-01 | 20830.129891 |
4 | Australia | 1999-01-01 | 22087.353380 |
5 | Australia | 1999-04-01 | 21458.373285 |
6 | Australia | 1999-07-01 | 19914.192508 |
7 | Australia | 1999-10-01 | 20027.925640 |
8 | Australia | 2000-01-01 | 22339.294779 |
9 | Australia | 2000-04-01 | 19941.063482 |
add_history=True
, as we will need the in-sample
fitted values of TimeGPT.
We will predict 2 years (8 quarters), starting from 01-01-2016.
📘 Available models in Azure AI If you are using an Azure AI endpoint, please be sure to setmodel="azureai"
:nixtla_client.forecast(..., model="azureai")
For the public API, we support two models:timegpt-1
andtimegpt-1-long-horizon
. By default,timegpt-1
is used. Please see this tutorial on how and when to usetimegpt-1-long-horizon
.
Australia
), to the lowest level
(Australia/Queensland/Brisbane/Holiday
). We can see that there is room
for improvement in the forecasts.
HierarchicalReconciliation
method from NeuralForecast
. We will be
using the
MinTrace
method.
unique_id | ds | TimeGPT | TimeGPT/MinTrace_method-ols | TimeGPT/MinTrace_method-mint_shrink | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Australia | 2016-01-01 | 24967.19100 | 25044.408634 | 25394.406211 |
1 | Australia | 2016-04-01 | 24528.88300 | 24503.089810 | 24327.212355 |
2 | Australia | 2016-07-01 | 24221.77500 | 24083.107812 | 23813.826553 |
3 | Australia | 2016-10-01 | 24559.44000 | 24548.038797 | 24174.894203 |
4 | Australia | 2017-01-01 | 25570.33800 | 25669.248281 | 25560.277473 |
… | … | … | … | … | … |
3395 | Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/V… | 2016-10-01 | 427.81146 | 435.423617 | 434.047102 |
3396 | Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/V… | 2017-01-01 | 450.71786 | 453.434056 | 459.954598 |
3397 | Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/V… | 2017-04-01 | 452.17923 | 460.197847 | 470.009789 |
3398 | Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/V… | 2017-07-01 | 450.68683 | 463.034888 | 482.645932 |
3399 | Australia/Western Australia/Experience Perth/V… | 2017-10-01 | 443.31050 | 451.754435 | 474.403379 |
HierarchicalEvaluation
for
this.
level | metric | TimeGPT | TimeGPT/MinTrace_method-ols | TimeGPT/MinTrace_method-mint_shrink | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Total | rmse | 1433.07 | 1436.07 | 1627.43 |
1 | Purpose | rmse | 482.09 | 475.64 | 507.50 |
2 | State | rmse | 275.85 | 278.39 | 294.28 |
3 | Regions | rmse | 49.40 | 47.91 | 47.99 |
4 | Bottom | rmse | 19.32 | 19.11 | 18.86 |
5 | Overall | rmse | 38.66 | 38.21 | 39.16 |
MinTrace(ols)
, and made them slightly worse using
MinTrace(mint_shrink)
, indicating that the base forecasts were
relatively strong already.
However, we now have coherent forecasts too - so not only did we make a
(small) accuracy improvement, we also got coherency to the hierarchy as
a result of our reconciliation step.
References