This notebook explores methods to improve anomaly detection by refining the detection process. TimeGPT leverages its forecasting capabilities to identify anomalies based on forecast errors. By optimizing forecast parameters and accuracy, you can align anomaly detection with specific use cases and improve its accuracy. 
import pandas as pd
from nixtla import NixtlaClient
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Utility function to plot anomalies
def plot_anomaly(df, anomaly_df, time_col = 'ts', target_col = 'y'):
    merged_df = pd.merge(df.tail(300), anomaly_df[[time_col, 'anomaly', 'TimeGPT']], on=time_col, how='left')
    plt.figure(figsize=(12, 2))
    plt.plot(merged_df[time_col], merged_df[target_col], label='y', color='navy', alpha=0.8)
    plt.plot(merged_df[time_col], merged_df['TimeGPT'], label='TimeGPT', color='orchid', alpha=0.7)
    plt.scatter(merged_df.loc[merged_df['anomaly'] == True, time_col], merged_df.loc[merged_df['anomaly'] == True, target_col], color='orchid', label='Anomalies Detected')
    plt.legend()
    plt.tight_layout()
    plt.show()

nixtla_client = NixtlaClient(
    # defaults to os.environ.get("NIXTLA_API_KEY")
    api_key = 'my_api_key_provided_by_nixtla'
)
👍 Use an Azure AI endpoint To use an Azure AI endpoint, set the base_url argument: nixtla_client = NixtlaClient(base_url="you azure ai endpoint", api_key="your api_key")

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1. Conduct anomaly detection

After initializing an instance of NixtlaClient, let’s explore an example using the Peyton Manning dataset. 
df = pd.read_csv('https://datasets-nixtla.s3.amazonaws.com/peyton-manning.csv',parse_dates = ['ds']).tail(200)
df.head()
unique_iddsy
276402015-07-056.499787
276502015-07-066.859615
276602015-07-076.881411
276702015-07-086.997596
276802015-07-097.152269
First, let’s set a baseline by using only the default parameters of the method. 
# Base case for anomaly detection using detect_anomaly_online
anomaly_df = nixtla_client.detect_anomalies_online(
    df,
    freq='D',
    h=14,
    level=80,
    detection_size=150
)

INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Validating inputs...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Preprocessing dataframes...
WARNING:nixtla.nixtla_client:Detection size is large. Using the entire series to compute the anomaly threshold...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Calling Online Anomaly Detector Endpoint...

plot_anomaly(df, anomaly_df, time_col = 'ds', target_col = 'y')

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2. Adjusting the Anomaly Detection Process

This section explores two key approaches to enhancing anomaly detection:
  1. fine-tuning the model to boost forecast accuracy
  2. adjusting forecast horizon and step sizes to optimize time series segmentation and analysis.
These strategies allow for a more tailored and effective anomaly detection process.

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2.1 Fine-tune TimeGPT

TimeGPT uses forecast errors for anomaly detection, so improving forecast accuracy reduces noise in the errors, leading to better anomaly detection. You can fine-tune the model using the following parameters:
  • finetune_steps: Number of steps for finetuning TimeGPT on new data.
  • finetune_depth: Level of fine-tuning controlling the quantity of parameters being fine-tuned (see our in-depth tutorial)
  • finetune_loss: Loss function to be used during the fine-tuning process.
anomaly_online_ft = nixtla_client.detect_anomalies_online(
    df,
    freq='D',
    h=14,
    level=80,
    detection_size=150,
    finetune_steps = 10,    # Number of steps for fine-tuning TimeGPT on new data
    finetune_depth = 2,     # Intensity of finetuning
    finetune_loss = 'mae'   # Loss function used during the finetuning process
)

INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Validating inputs...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Preprocessing dataframes...
WARNING:nixtla.nixtla_client:Detection size is large. Using the entire series to compute the anomaly threshold...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Calling Online Anomaly Detector Endpoint...

plot_anomaly(df, anomaly_online_ft, time_col = 'ds', target_col = 'y')
From the plot above, we can see that fewer anomalies were detected by the model, since the fine-tuning process helps TimeGPT better forecast the series.

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2.2 Change forecast horizon and step

Similar to cross-validation, the anomaly detection method generates forecasts for historical data by splitting the time series into multiple windows. The way these windows are defined can impact the anomaly detection results. Two key parameters control this process:
  • h: Specifies how many steps into the future the forecast is made for each window.
  • step_size: Determines the interval between the starting points of consecutive windows.
Note that when step_size is smaller than h, then we get overlapping windows. This can make the detection process more robust, as TimeGPT will see the same time step more than once. However, this comes with a computational cost, since the same time step will be predicted more than once. 
anomaly_df_horizon = nixtla_client.detect_anomalies_online(
    df,
    time_col='ds',
    target_col='y',
    freq='D',
    h=2,                 # Forecast horizon
    step_size = 1,       # Step size for moving through the time series data
    level=80,            
    detection_size=150
)

INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Validating inputs...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Preprocessing dataframes...
WARNING:nixtla.nixtla_client:Detection size is large. Using the entire series to compute the anomaly threshold...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Calling Online Anomaly Detector Endpoint...

plot_anomaly(df, anomaly_df_horizon, time_col = 'ds', target_col = 'y')
📘 Balancing h and step_size depends on your data: For frequent, short-lived anomalies, use a smaller h to focus on short-term predictions and a smaller step_size to increase overlap and sensitivity. For smooth trends or long-term patterns, use a larger h to capture broader anomalies and a larger step_size to reduce noise and computational cost.